1. Problem Recognition, Definition and Evaluation
As a part from Field Development Program (FDP) it recommends introducing to upgrade the oil shipping facility. In this project two Oil transfer pumps to be installed in B station to increase the shipping capacity from 20,000 ppd to 50,000 ppd. In the below table a summary of project activities:
Table 1 Project activities and time estimates (weeks)
The critical bath is ACHKMOS and project duration is 53 weeks. This project is very critical to the company to achieve production target by 55 weeks. This blog to study the possibility of this project to success.
2. Development of the Feasible Alternatives
To study these project a statistical tool to be used. PERT is proposed. PERT, is a statistical tool, used in project managment, which was designed to analyze and represent the tasks involved in completing a given project.
3. Development of the Outcomes for Each Alternative
The formula to calculate the expected time:
The variance of each activity is calculated using:
m: most likely
t: expected time
4. Selection of a Criterion
The calculation of expected time and variance as follows:
Table 2 Expected time and variance
5. Analysis and Comparison of the Alternatives
The project variance from the table above is the sum of the variance along the critical path. Threrfor, the project variance (σp2) is
Graph 1 Probability density vs z- Score
6. Selection of the Preferred Alternative
As a result from above calculation, the chance of completion by due date is 85.99%. or 14.1 % the project will delayed or fail.
7. Performance Monitoring and Post Evaluation of Results
The project success is very good but this percentage only achievable if progress monitoring and controlled closely since this project get activities to that is executed in parallel to ensure not delay any critical path activies.
- Humpreys, G. C. (2011). Project Management Using Earned Value (2nd ed.). Humpreys & Associates, Inc.
- Wikipedia. (2014, July 12). Program evaluation and review technique (PERT). Retrieved from Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Program_evaluation_and_review_technique_%28PERT%29
- Gideon W(2014) W19_ Installation of Air Filtration System Project