W9.0_Ahmed Al Azizi_ Attitudes towards Risk of Oil Deferment during Tie-in of Two Phase Separators Project with Existing Facility


  1. Problem Definition

During Tie-in stage in two phase separators project the operation and construction team will stand to accomplish this activity with minimum Oil deferment to ensure that overall production target is met. Attitude is a state of mind, mental view or disposition with regard to a fact. Individual or group can make a choice of attitude to lean towards a particular desired response, behavior or outcome. Risk attitude is a chosen state of mind with regard to those uncertainties that could have a positive or negative effect on objectives, driven by perception. Attitude has an impact on executing the tie-in procedure from individuals or operation and construction teams.

  1. Identify the Feasible Alternative

There are three basic risk attitudes:

Table 1

Table1 basic risk attitudes

  1. Development of the Outcome for Alternative

During preparation for the Tie-in a meeting conducted for all the teams field management to ensure that all the requirement in place. The following table summarizes the attitudes towards risk of oil deferment during tie-in of two phase separators project with existing facility.

Table 2

 Table 2 Attitudes towards risk of oil deferment during tie-in of two phase separators project with existing facility.

  1. Selection of Criteria

graph 1

Graph 1 Spectrum of risk attitudes

The above graph allocates the risk attitudes spectrum which shows the range that each team reaction.

  1. Analysis and Comparison of the Alternative

A range of possible attitudes can be adopted towards the same situation, resulting in differing behaviors and leading to consequences.

Figure 1

Figure 1 Perception driven behaviors in project environments

  1. Selection of the Preferred Alternative

Chosen attitudes towards risk may differ depending on a range of different influences. Perception is a key drive of attitude as this determines how a particular situation is seen, and hence the chosen response considered to be appropriate.

  1. Performance Monitoring and the Post Evaluation of Result.

Management shall review and assess the team’s attitudes and advice the best for the business and work environment. However, the risk attitude is healthy if it is within the range but it can be controlled by having a proper HAZOP or workshop sessions.

References:

  1. The Home of Managed Risk Attitude, retrieved on July 30, 2014   http://www.risk-attitude.com/definition.html
  2. John Hother / Proneta ltd; Hans van Dongen and Steve Braithwaite / Shell International Exploration and Production BV (2003). Quantifying Risks of Well Intervention, Oil Deferment and Loss of Reserves in Complex Smart Wells.
  3. Risk Management for Enterprises and Individuals, retrieved on July 30, 2014   http://catalog.flatworldknowledge.com/bookhub/reader/1?e=baranoff-ch01_s03

 

 

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One thought on “W9.0_Ahmed Al Azizi_ Attitudes towards Risk of Oil Deferment during Tie-in of Two Phase Separators Project with Existing Facility

  1. I LOVED your case study and I was really impressed with your “spectrum of risk attitudes”. I had never seen that before and will certainly incorporate it into my course materials in the future. (With appropriate citation, of course!!!)

    The only reason you didn’t get 5 stars was your steps 5 and 6 were too theoretical. Normally, it is up to management to determine what the appropriate level of risk aversion is acceptable. (Zero tolerance for drug use being one of them)

    The danger in allowing everyone to establish and apply their own risk tolerances is how you end up with people taking foolish chances or on the other extreme, people not taking any chances at all. (And I have a great first hand war story about this when we meet up face to face again)

    Bottom line- it is up to MANAGEMENT to determine what is the appropriate level of risk aversion and to either rein in those who are too risk seeking or to train or develop those who are too risk averse to be willing to take more chances.

    Hope this makes some sense to you? Great topic to discuss when we meet up face to face again.

    BR,
    Dr. PDG, Jakarta

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